My daughter turns 3.
On January 19, 2007:
Well, so much for our daffodils! They all bloomed in our front yard last week. They now form a nice bright yellow cluster at the bottom of our driveway. Temperatures of 65 degrees in Washington in January will do that…. [W]hen I see things in nature that I’ve never seen in my life, like daffodils blooming in January, it starts to feel creepy, like a “Twilight Zone” segment.
Of the festivals of nonsense that periodically overtake American politics, surely the silliest is the argument that because Washington is having a particularly snowy winter it proves that climate change is a hoax and, therefore, we need not bother with all this girly-man stuff like renewable energy, solar panels and carbon taxes.
Jana, owner of my favorite parenting blog and spouse of my favorite Houston-based bioinformatician, is running a blog comment contest to win free yummy chocolates. I’ve had these chocolates before, and have one thing to say about them (when I’m done chewing, of course): “Move over, Neuhaus.”
Pissed that I got stuck in Cross-Bronx traffic for 45 minutes at 6:30 am, that feeling was abruptly replaced with deep remorse that the wreckage I drove by resulted in a death. So cruelly random. And I just got over a mini existential crisis a few months ago….
No kidding. As the title suggests, Yudkowsky, who blogs on Overcoming Bias, explains the intuition behind Bayes’ Law and its application to everyday thinking. I’ve seen many articles and presentations about Bayesian reasoning, but this one is spot on, lengthy though it might be.
Written by Chris Anderson, editor of Wired magazine. Money line:
Correlation supersedes causation, and science can advance even without coherent models, unified theories, or really any mechanistic explanation at all.